10/19/2023 0 Comments Fivethirtyeight bloggerIn fact, even most experts are only nominally better than a coin flip at determining a future outcome. In our hour-long Freakonomics Radio episode “ The Folly of Prediction” - which will be available as a podcast in the fall - we showed that humans are lousy at predicting just about anything: the weather, the stock market, elections. We’ve been having some fun recently at the expense of people who like to predict things. This Week in Corn Predictions: The USDA Got it Right (Almost) Given the stakes, emotions, and general unpredictability that surround climate change, I am guessing Silver will collect a few more such darts. Relatedly, his chapter called “A Climate of Healthy Skepticism” has already been attacked by the climate scientist Michael Mann. (I would like to think his research included listening to our radio hour “ The Folly of Prediction,” but I have no idea.)Ī section of Signal about weather prediction was recently excerpted in the Times Magazine. I have only read chunks so far but can already recommend it. Now Silver has written his first book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don’t. (He has also turned up on this blog a few times. He became even more prominent for his rigorous analysis of elections, primarily via his FiveThirtyEightblog. Nate Silver first gained prominence for his rigorous analysis of baseball statistics. Bring Your Questions for FiveThirtyEight Blogger Nate Silver, Author of The Signal and the Noise
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